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Bitcoin price rejects CPI boost as market Fed rate pause odds near 95%

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Bitcoin (BTC) fell back in line at the June 12 Wall Street open after a brief macroeconomic data jolt failed to shift the status quo.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart on Bitstamp. Source: TradingView

Markets expect first Fed pause since 2021

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD continuing to circle $26,000, avoiding major volatility.

The largest cryptocurrency saw a brief spike toward $26,500 on the back of the latest United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) print, which came in below expectations.

While ostensibly a boon to risk assets, crypto markets remained cautious on the day, with comments from the Federal Reserve and further macro prints due in the coming days.

Bets on the Fed pausing its rate hike cycle on June 14 after the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meanwhile, climbed following the CPI event. At the time of writing, per CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the odds stood at over 90%, having started the day at 75%.

Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group

“Disinflation continues!” financial commentator Tedtalksmacro reacted.

“Headline CPI prints at +4.0% YoY, which now takes the 3-month annualised rate to +2.21%. The Fed have long targeted 2.0%. PAUSE.”

Trading firm QCP Capital likewise believed that “consensus has it right” — that the Fed would not raise rates further — at least this time.

“Based on high frequency indicators, US inflation is falling rapidly, which will enable the FOMC to make this week’s meeting their first pause in more than a year,” it wrote in a market update on the day.

QCP acknowledged that subsequent FOMC meetings may yield different results, in order to “appease” more hawkish committee members.

“Furthermore we think the easing of financial conditions as a result of this massive melt-up equity rally will play at the back of their minds,” it added.

BTC price: Where’s the volatility?

Multiple commentators meanwhile noted that BTC/USD had closed the gap in CME Bitcoin futures from the weekend.

Related: SEC, CPI and a ‘strong rebound’ — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Analyzing what could come next, Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, was torn, nonetheless flagging $25,000 as a potential downside entry point.

Data from the Binance order book uploaded to social media by monitoring resource Material Indicators meanwhile showed a lack of liquidity near spot price prior to the print, with clearly-defined support and resistance.

“Bulls are looking for a boost from the Economic Data coming today and tomorrow to reclaim the range,” part of a prior post commented about daily timeframes.

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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.