The crypto market is up today, continuing gains from the Friday due to a mix of technical and fundamental factors.
Oversold bounce across top crypto market assets
On June 17, the crypto market’s capitalization grew by over 2% to $1.05 trillion, up nearly 7.5% from the $975.25 billion low seen two days ago.
Meanwhile, the second-largest cryptocurrency Ether (ETH), is up over 9% in the past two days. Last week’s worst performers, Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), and Polygon (MATIC), also recovered 8-15% in the same period.
Interestingly, the crypto market cap started recovering a day after its daily relative strength index’s (RSI) reading fell almost to 30, indicating its nearly “oversold.”
From a technical perspective, an oversold RSI prompts a price recovery or consolidation, as shown below.
Blackrock’s Bitcoin ETF buzz
In addition to the technical bounce, growing speculations around the first Bitcoin ETF approval in the U.S. helped the crypto market bounce.
Notably, BlackRock, an investment firm managing $9.5 trillion in assets, applied to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a Bitcoin ETF on July 16. Throughout its history, the company has applied for 576 ETFs, facing only one rejection.
The crypto market has risen 4.5% since the BlackRock application, with market analyst Lark Davis predicting a SEC approval could have the asset manager purchase every single Bitcoin available across crypto exchanges.
Excerpts from Davis’s statement:
“Only about 10% of all Bitcoin [worth $50 billion] is sitting on exchanges. 0.5% of BlackRock money movings to BTC would buy every single coin available.”
Nonetheless, the SEC has rejected all Bitcoin ETF applications, including those from asset managers like VanEck, Ark Invest, and Bitwise.
Crypto market outlook for H2 2023
From a technical perspective, the crypto market has ranged inside what appears to be a bull flag pattern since April 2023, which raises its prospects of continuing its recovery trend toward $1.37 trillion into the second half of 2023 — up 35% from current valuations.
Conversely, bears will attempt to push the market cap below the bull flag’s lower trendline, risking invalidating the bullish setup altogether.
In this bearish scenario, the crypto market would drop toward the next major support at $875.50 billion, an important level from the June-November 2022 and March 2023 sessions.
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